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SEPTEMBER 12,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

IT'S STARTING – FROM THE POLITICO:  A former Democratic National Committee chairman says President Barack Obama and the party’s congressional leaders should immediately come up with a process to identify a potential successor candidate for Hillary Clinton for the off-chance a health emergency forces her out of the race.  “Now is the time for all good political leaders to come to the aid of their party,” said Don Fowler, who helmed the DNC from 1995 to 1997, during Bill Clinton’s presidency, and has backed Hillary Clinton since her 2008 presidential bid. “I think the plan should be developed by 6 o’clock this afternoon.”  I doubt if he would have made that comment without considerable backing.

IS SHE SERIOUS? – FROM FOX:  Hillary Clinton defended herself Monday over her campaign's lateness announcing her pneumonia diagnosis, saying she's "already met a high standard of transparency" while looking forward to returning to the campaign trail.  The Democratic presidential nominee told CNN in a phone interview she did feel dizzy and lost her balance while attending a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York, but now is "feeling so much better."  "I was supposed to rest five days, that's what they told me on Friday, and I didn't follow that very wise advice," Clinton said.  She told CNN her campaign didn't make her diagnosis on Friday public because "I just didn't think it was going to be that big a deal."   Oh, I fully agree with our gracious queen.  Why would anyone be interested in the health of a presidential candidate? 

STATE OF THE RACE – FROM UPI:  The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by about 3 percentage points.  The online poll shows Trump with 48.7 percent to Clinton's 45.8 percent in the seven-day polling period ending Sunday. Those responding with "others" were at 5 percent. "Others" in the poll are defined as respondents who decline to pick either Clinton or Trump.  The most recent data reflect a 0.8 percentage point shift toward Clinton compared to data collected a day earlier. Trump was at nearly 50 percent -- 49.1 percent -- compared with 45.3 percent for Clinton in the seven-day polling period ending Saturday. Trump's highest number since July 14 was 49.2 percent on July 24.   We stress that this is only one poll.  Others have Clinton slightly ahead.  And it's the races in individual states that will decide the election.  Overall, taking a number of polls into account, Hillary has a small lead in the battleground states, but it has been eroding.

September 12, 2016       Permalink

IS THE DOCTOR IN? – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:   There are many questions emerging in light of Hillary Clinton's illness.  Are we being told the truth?  Part of the truth?  A little fraction of the truth?

A distinguished reader makes this point:  "There are two vaccines – pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), that the Centers for Disease Control urge everyone over 65 to get and that Medicare provides at no cost – because they prevent pneumonia attacks like the one Hillary Clinton claims to have had. Was she somehow so busy erasing emails during the four years since she turned 65 that she somehow didn't have time to get them?"

Excellent point.  I got the vaccine.  So did my wife.  Didn't Hillary's physician advise her to get that protection?  If not, why not?

Also, we're now told that Hillary's intense coughing spells are due to an allergy.  If that's the case, and given the severity of the coughing, why wasn't she placed in the care of a leading allergist?  There is no indication that she was.  Why not?

Further, from what I read, pneumonia can be contagious.  Is Hillary's contagious?  Is there even a little chance that it could be?  If so, what was she doing out in public, close to others?  And she embraced a little girl who approached her on the street yesterday.  What's going on here?

Do any of you have other questions?  I'd love to know at comments@urgentagenda.com.  The Clintons are secretive.  Even some of the CNN commentators this morning insisted that there be more transparency.   Hillary is, after all, running for president.

September 12, 2016       Permalink

IF HILLARY IS OUT – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   What happens if Hillary Clinton's illness, or a second illness, or a relapse, forces her out of the presidential race?  Turns out the road ahead for the Democratic Party wouldn't be that clear.  From Heat Street:

When it comes to candidates (rather than office holders) the rules actually come from the political parties, not the Constitution. For Republicans, if a Presidential candidate dies or drops out, the RNC has to either convene a new convention or take an official poll of the RNC’s state representatives to select a replacement candidate. Most likely, the RNC would move the running mate up to the top of the bill, in order to preserve what fundraising has already been done for the ticket.

But for the Democrats, it’s not so clear. The Democratic National Committee reserves the right to replace a candidate who dies or drops out, and it doesn’t provide additional details in its by-laws. So presumably the Democrats would have to make up the process up as they go along. The DNC could entrust replacing Clinton to a central DNC brain trust or, more likely, replicate the RNC’s system, handing the vote over to the committee’s state delegates.

The DNC would likely want to retain the support of major donors who’ve already given to the Clinton-Kaine ticket, and would probably just bump Tim Kaine up from the Veep slot. Kaine would simply slide up the ticket, choose a new running mate, hope the ballots could be reprinted in time, and carry on just as Clinton had.

But, of course, this is 2016 and anything can happen.

Donald Trump has proven to be a wild card candidate: he’s spent no money, compared to Clinton’s million-dollar ad buys, and raised virtually nothing compared to his Democratic opponents, and he’s still running neck and neck with Clinton nationwide. So the DNC would likely have to consider whether Kaine could retain Clinton’s razor-thin lead, or whether they’d need a more capable candidate.

The DNC might naturally lean towards Joe Biden who said he didn’t want to campaign, but has never said, openly, that he’d prefer not to be President.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It's stimulating speculation.  And, despite the coldness involved, we really must think about these possibilities so that we can be prepared for them.

September 12, 2016       Permalink 

IOWA FOR TRUMP IN LATEST POLL – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  Normally Democratic Iowa, which went for Obama by six points in 2012, is tilting toward Trump.  From The Hill: 

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race in Iowa, according to a new poll.

Trump is favored by 43 percent of respondents while Clinton is backed by 42 percent, according to a survey by Simpson College and RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

In a four-way matchup, Trump also leads Clinton by 1 point, 40 to 39 percent. In that matchup, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is supported by 10 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is backed by 3 percent of voters.

Another 8 percent are undecided.

The poll finds 57 percent of respondents said there are voting "for" their candidate, but 41 percent are casting a ballot to vote "against" a candidate.

Trump has a lead over Clinton among Iowa evangelicals, 56 to 25 percent, according to the poll. Clinton has an advantage among Iowa voters who attended college, 42 to 36 percent.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 to 8 among 1,054 Iowa voters.

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the state, Trump has roughly a 1-point lead over the Democratic nominee, 42.3 to 41.5 percent. Several polls conducted in August show a tight race in the state.

COMMENT:  If the polls are accurate, that's a real shock.  Iowa should be safely Democratic.  We'll look to other polls to verify or question the Trump trend that we've seen.

September 12,  2016     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 11,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

HILLARY – It's all Hillary all the time now.  The medical setback will play out this week.  It confirms that her health (and Trump's) is a legitimate item of concern.  I've noticed, in all the news coverage, a growing skepticism that we're being told everything.  I've also noticed questions about the legalities that would be involved if Hillary had to be replaced on the Democratic ticket.  I suspect that within 24 hours we'll see the whitewashing begin at The New York Times, with rosy predictions of an early recovery.  But here's the question:  If she really does have pneumonia, at her age, and even if she recovers somewhat with relative speed, how can she then bounce right back to a full-time campaign?  Running for president is grueling.  It's sometimes called the hardest political job in the world.  If Hillary cannot run a full-time campaign, her reduced schedule will simply call attention to her medical state.  Would that cost her the election?  Maybe not, especially if Trump stumbles.  But even if she wins, she'd be considered hobbled, and temporary.

CLINTON CANCELS COAST TRIP – FROM THE HILL:  She was supposed to campaign in San Francisco and Los Angeles to start this week, and tape an appearance for the “Ellen” show.  Clinton has been ill with pneumonia, her doctor revealed in a Sunday evening statement.  Dr. Lisa R. Bardack released a statement via the campaign revealing the diagnosis on Sunday evening, hours after the Democratic presidential nominee was seen stumbling on video after exiting a 9/11 memorial event early.  Bardack said Clinton had an examination at her home in Chappaqua after the incident, which was a result of dehydration and overheating.  She said the candidate is "re-hydrated and recovering nicely."  The statement also said that Clinton's regular coughing fits have been the result of an allergy.  Oh, really?  Then why isn't she under the care of an allergist?  Allergies can be treated.  It's all very curious.

TRUMP'S ROLE – Probably acting on good advice, Trump has been quiet about Hillary Clinton's latest health crisis.  That's good form and good politics.  There's nothing for him to say except to wish her well.  However, the Trump campaign has some very critical decisions to make.  The first debate is two weeks away and, presumably, Clinton will be well enough to be there.  But you may be sure that she'll not only play the gender card, she'll also play the illness card. "I'm well enough to run, well enough to be president, but how can you ask tough questions of a woman who's just had pneumonia?"  That will be the psychology, and the Trumpers will have to figure out a way to defeat her in debate while not seeming to trample on a woman in a weakened state.  Trump is a rough guy.  It won't be easy for him to strike a balance.

September 11,  2016     Permalink

OBAMA'S CYNICISM ON FULL DISPLAY – AT 12:50 P.M. ET:  President Obama spoke today at the Pentagon.  Does anyone care?  From AP:

President Barack Obama on Sunday invoked Scripture and praised the resilience and diversity of Americans while attending a Pentagon ceremony honoring the 3,000 lives lost 15 years ago in the nation’s worst terror attack.

In what was Obama’s last 9/11 memorial service as the nation’s president, he urged Americans not to let its enemies divide them. US diversity — “our patchwork heritage” — is not a weakness, he said.

“It is still and always will be one of our greatest strengths,” he said. The nation must “stay true to ourselves, stay true to what’s best in us — that we do not let others divide us.”

Unbelievable.  He is the most divisive president I've seen in my time, a man who has set group against group, civilian against policeman.  Nobody calls him a unifier.

Speaking on a warm, sunny morning at the Defense Department’s headquarters, Obama said extremist groups such as the Islamic State group and al-Qaeda know they can never defeat America so they focus on trying to instill fear.

“As Americans we do not give into fear,” he said.

COMMENT:  Such tough talk, such weak policies. 

September 11, 2016       Permalink 

AL QAEDA SPEAKS – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  On this 15th anniversary of the 9-11 attacks, we hear from Al Qaeda, which launched them.  The message is familiar, and threatening.  From foreigndesknews.com: 

Days before the 15th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, terror group Al Qaeda has released a video referring to the day as a “slap” to the U.S. and calling on jihadis to carry out more attacks on U.S. soil.

Al Qaeda’s media wing Al Sahab released the video online featuring the group’s current leader Ayman Al Zawahiri in a 20-minute address to Al Qaeda loyalists along with archived footage of the group’s former leader Osama Bin Laden.

"As long as your crimes continue, the events of 9/11 will be repeated thousands of times, by the will of Allah. And we will follow you – if you don't cease your aggression [against us] – until the Day of Judgment..., " he says.

Referring to the events of 9/11 as the “blessed raids,” Zawahiri boasts at both the economic and human toll the attacks had on the U.S. which are still felt by Americans today.

The fourth hijacked plane, United Flight 93, he reminds viewers, was headed towards "the biggest criminals in the White House or the Congress."

The video also includes an appeal to African American non-Muslims, inviting them to convert to Islam to seek salvation with footage from a sermon from late African-American leader Malcolm X.

COMMENT:  There will be more attacks.  The immediate threat is probably greater in Europe, where French leaders, and others, are warning about coming attacks, and acknowledging the number of potential terrorists already in their countries.  The prime minister of France says there are 15,000 would-be jihadists on French police radar.  In this country there are FBI investigations of potential murderers in all 50 states.

Field Marshal Obama really did the job.

September 11, 2016       Permalink

HILLARY REPORTED ILL, LEAVES 9-11 EVENT EARLY – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:  From Fox:

Hillary Clinton had a “medical episode” that required her to leave a 9/11 commemoration ceremony early on Sunday, a law enforcement source who witnessed the event told Fox News.

The Democratic presidential nominee appeared to faint on her way into her van and had to be helped by her security, the source said. She was “clearly having some type of medical episode.”

"Secretary Clinton attended the September 11th Commemoration Ceremony for just an hour and thirty minutes this morning to pay her respects and greet some of the families of the fallen," Clinton spokesperson Nick Merrill said in a statement. "During the ceremony, she felt overheated so departed to go to her daughter's apartment, and is feeling much better."

But a witness told Fox News that Clinton stumbled off the curb, her "knees buckled" and she lost a shoe as she was helped into a van during her "unexpected early departure."

A separate law enforcement source told Fox News that Clinton left the event because she wasn't feeling well.

COMMENT:  Temperature at the time was about 80 degrees, not exactly overheat weather.  What is going on here?

We don't report a story like this with any pleasure.  We want all presidential candidates to be healthy and ready for the job.  But there's been so much discussion about Hillary's medical state that it really is time for both major candidates to agree to full medical examination conducted by a neutral team of doctors.  It should be standard practice.

September 11,  2016     Permalink